A new Deloitte analysis of the European Union’s ReFuelEU Sustainable Aviation Fuel mandate suggests that the climate-centric rule could unintentionally deter travelers from using European carriers and hubs, potentially adding cost and complexity to trips that originate, connect, or terminate in Brussels and other EU cities.
What the ReFuelEU mandate asks of airlines
Under ReFuelEU, airlines operating from European airports must steadily increase the proportion of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blended into every gallon of jet fuel they load. The regulation is a cornerstone of the bloc’s plan to decarbonize aviation, yet still accommodate the millions of people who rely on air travel for work and leisure. Unlike carbon offset programs, the SAF rule directly targets aircraft emissions by substituting a portion of fossil-based kerosene with bio- or synthetic alternatives.
Deloitte’s study, prepared for industry trade group Airlines for Europe, contends the mandate could prove more disruptive than policymakers anticipate. The research team modeled ticket prices on long-haul flights, comparing European carriers bound by the SAF quota to competitors operating from hubs in Istanbul, Dubai, and Doha. Those non-EU airlines face no comparable requirement and can therefore buy traditional jet fuel at today’s lower market price.
A potential 15 percent difference by 2030
The price gap is not trivial. “Cost disparities could rise by up to 15 percent on key EU–Asia routes by 2030,” Deloitte wrote in the study. In a statement, the company said. For a family of four planning a European summer vacation in Southeast Asia, the differential might translate into hundreds of euros, enough to make a one-stop itinerary via Istanbul or Dubai look far more attractive than a direct flight on a European flag carrier.
Why travelers could feel the pinch
Airlines typically pass additional operating costs on to passengers. If meeting the SAF requirement adds several euros to every long-haul ticket, price-sensitive travelers may book through non-EU hubs or even shift their vacation entirely outside the bloc, the report warns. Such “carbon and business leakage” undermines the EU’s climate goals because the flight happens anyway—just with tanks full of cheaper, more polluting fuel loaded elsewhere.
Besides higher fares, European passengers might confront reduced nonstop options. As ticket sales migrate to non-EU carriers, European airlines could trim or cancel marginal routes, forcing travelers onto less convenient schedules or multiple connections.
SAF-BAM: An accounting fix on the table
To preserve environmental ambition while leveling the commercial playing field, Deloitte proposes a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Book and Claim Accounting Mechanism, or SAF-BAM. The concept is similar to renewable energy certificates in the power sector.
- Airlines purchase SAF where it is most readily available—perhaps at a U.S. refinery or a Nordic biofuel complex—and earn digital certificates that represent the environmental benefits.
- Those certificates can be claimed against any flight, even if the physical fuel uplift takes place elsewhere.
- Revenue from buying certificates would be channeled into additional green aviation projects across Europe.
Because the mechanism decouples where SAF is burned from who pays, it reduces the incentive to exploit non-EU hubs solely to escape higher fuel costs. Deloitte argues the approach also avoids the legal hurdles of extending the EU’s existing Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)—currently applied to steel, cement, and other goods—to the aviation sector.
What this means for your next trip
For now, the numbers in the Deloitte model are projections, not hard-wired increases. Airlines typically hedge fuel purchases months in advance, and some have long-term SAF supply agreements that could buffer initial price shocks. Still, frequent flyers and vacation planners should watch how major European carriers respond in the run-up to 2030.
Tips for Travelers
- Compare hubs: When shopping for long-haul tickets, check fares via EU airports such as Brussels, Frankfurt, or Paris against similar routings through Istanbul or Dubai. A small detour could save money, although it may add to the travel time.
- Monitor fuel surcharges: Airlines often break out a “carrier-imposed surcharge” on your fare. Rising SAF costs may appear first here.
- Leverage loyalty programs: If European airlines raise cash prices, redeeming frequent-flyer miles may offer better value than spending euros.
- Watch for SAF opt-in programs: Some carriers already let passengers pay a bit extra to guarantee a portion of SAF on their flight. Participation could become mandatory later; locking in voluntary rates now may be more cost-effective.
- Consider the carbon math: Even if a non-EU routing is cheaper, remember that extra connecting flights generally increase total emissions and travel time.
The bottom line for flyers
Europe is serious about decarbonizing aviation, but good intentions can collide with market realities. Unless policymakers fine-tune ReFuelEU—or adopt a SAF-BAM system—travelers may find themselves weighing higher prices for direct flights against longer, cheaper itineraries outside the bloc. Either way, understanding the forces reshaping the fare you pay will help you book smarter, greener trips in the years ahead.
